County Hall is a febrile place just now after the dust settles on the election that saw the ruling Conservatives come within a whisker of losing control. UKIP has confirmed its leader will be Roger Lachford, the former Conservative deputy leader of Thanet council.

But there are developments involving the other parties, too:

A Conservative cabinet reshuffle is underway and is expected to be officially announced later today.  Leader  Paul Carter has been forced to rejig his top team after the defeat of education cabinet member Mike Whiting. If my sources are correct, that job will go to the well-regarded Cllr Roger Gough, who interestingly is a Sevenoaks councillor and will take control of the council's efforts to open a new grammar school annexe in the area.

One of his key tasks will be to win over Michael Gove who for some reason many Conservatives find hard to fathom has stuck his oar in and decided the site Kent wants should be offered to a free school instead.

After the election hammering, Gove may just be open to the idea that it might not be such a bad thing to be seen to be supporting the scheme, given the fact that UKIP now seems more enthusiastic about selection than the national Conservative party.

The other change likely is that Cllr John Simmonds, who has the finance portfolio, will take on the job of being deputy leader, replacing the long-serving Tunbridge Wells councillor Alex King. Another interesting move (he will retain the finance job) and a sign of complete rapprochement between the two. We don't yet know why Alex King has gone but he has been in hospital with a fractured leg.

Over in the Labour camp and an unexpected leadership contest is looming. Cllr Mike Eddy, who regained the seat he lost in 2009 and was the former opposition leader before the party's meltdown is to challenge Gordon Cowan for the job of leadng the 13-strong group.

He says he has "unfinished business" but denies his bid for the role implies he feels that the party under-performed at the election, having forecast that it could capture 20 seats.

It will be interesting to see if any other names enter he fray - there is some suggestion that Cllr Roger Truelove, returned to Swale Central, could throw his hat in the ring. I am not sure a leadership contest is exactly what Labour need just now.

It might give the impression they are a divided group and it could be better to wait and see how UKIP acquits itself as a formal opposition group.

UKIP did not win control of any councils and three quarters of people who turned out did not actually vote for them. But it is a measure of the impact it had on the political landscape on Thursday that it has succeeded  in becoming the talking point in the debate about whether the the political map of Britain has been radically redrawn.

No mean achievement for a party dismissed as clowns, loonies and fruitcakes by their opponents.

The Kent County Council election  results and reaction>>>>

Nowhere was their success more shocking or stunning than Kent where against even the most optimistic predictions they came tantalisingly close to depriving the Conservatives of securing control of County Hall for the first time in two decades. From a standing start, they took seat after seat from the Conservatives, who were paralysed with anxiety that their grip on KCC was being loosened. To end up with more seats than Labour and the Liberal Democrats and become the formal opposition was truly staggering.

There are lots of reasons why UKIP did well and it may be that in Kent, sensitivities around issues like immigration and asylum seekers were more pronounced and resonated more with voters than elsewhere. It is telling that the areas where they did particularly well - Thanet and Shepway - are both places which have had deep rooted problems with economic deprivation and have also been areas where the impact of new communities have been seen and felt at first hand.

In fact, while the party did target Thanet, it did not have a concerted campaign in Shepway yet nearly pulled off a clean sweep of all five seats with very little canvassing. Gains in Swale - another area where the recession has hit - were also notable.The exception is the affluent west Kent town of Tunbridge Wells, where it also won seats.

More than that, UKIP has tapped into widespread voter antipathy and disenchantment with mainstream politics and mainstream political parties: its success has a lot to do with people regarding it as anti-establishment; anti-elite and somehow outside the system - a perfect repository for protest votes. But it has also tapped into a major issue that the big parties have spent too long pussy-foting around - Britain's role and future in the EU. The unwilllingnes of the main parties to be explicit (particularly in terms of time scale) about when people might be given a say has been devastating for them.

But after the euphoria of Thursday's results, there comes the cold reality of the consequences of suddenly finding yourself elected to office.

UKIP county councillors will troop into County Hall next week for an induction programme that will remind them that as locally-elected representatives, they will not be able - much as they like -  to spend the next four years banging on about an EU referendum and immigration. They will all be receiving allowances of around £13,000 to represent constituents whose interests may well be rather more parochial but no less important  - the state of their roads, school places, families dealing with difficult social services issues and planning.

The ability of UKIP to build on the momentum that it has will not be based on how loudly local councillors shout about the need for a referendum on Europe. If they want to be more than a flash in the pan and establish a secure position as a genuine political alternative, voters will need to be convinced they can tackle and influence policy in ways that affect - for the better - the 300 different services that Kent County Council provides. It will also be interesting to see how and if the 17-strong group, all newcomers with one or two exceptions, to the world of local government, remain a cohesive unit.

Parties that achieve success quickly and unexpectedly can sometimes find it awkward adjusting to the demands of being elected to public office and it was intriguing hearing in private how some Conservatives at KCC are already speculating over the prospects of "turning" some of the new UKIP councillors and returning them to the Tory fold.

The other challenge, allied to this, is that UKIP's USP - a movement outside the political system - has actually been undermined by their stunning success. They are, in a sense, no longer outsiders looking in at mainstream politics. If they believe the hype and really do consider they are part of a four-party system, then the consequence is that people will at a council level particularly be judging them on what they actually do rather than on what they say.

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For the Conservatives in Kent, the election was a sobering moment. Only once in its history have the Conservatives lost control of County Hall, back in 1993. That they came within a whisker of losing outright control last Thursday was a discomfiting experience, to put it mildy. In one sense, they were not being punished because of their track record over the last four years but were being punished for the perceived failings of the coalition, which is what they had expected.

But I do think that the party has to do more than blame the dismal results on mid-term blues. Senior Conservatives in Kent have been quick to turn their fire on the national leadership, with KCC leader Paul Carter being particularly damning - accusing some in his party at Westminster of acting more like Lib Dems than Conservatives.

Implicit in this is the idea that the party's woes can be dealt with by a lurch to the right. I am not so sure. The received wisdom so far as general elections are concerned is that they are won and lost in the middle ground. Tony Blair won three because he realised that in places like Kent, classic middle England territory, you had to appeal to the centre ground to deliver victory. 

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Labour has insisted that it is satisfied with the progress it has made in Kent but it fell short of its key objective: recapturing all the seats it had lost back in 2009.

For it to have shown it was making real advances, it should have won more and the fact that it has secured too few to even be the official opposition at County Hall is not where it wants or needs to be. Ed Miliband staked a lot by coming to traditional Tory heartland during the campaign but on these results, it seems the party still has a Southern Discomfort issue.

Their one hope may be that over the next four years, there will inevitably be  a handful of by-elections. The Tories need only lose a few seats for the arithmetic to be changed in a way that just might lead to the authority having a different rainbow coalition.

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We expect the jungle drums at County Hall to be beating with news of a Conservative cabinet reshuffle within a few days. The defeat of the well-regarded cabinet member for schools Mike Whiting means there will have to be changes. Education remains one of the key roles and there are many awkward issues looming, not least trying to persuade Michael Gove to back the KCC plans for a new grammar school.

The other gossip surrounds the future of the deputy leader Alex King, who was unable to be at his count after breaking his leg. It could be that his tenure as the reliable second-in-command could be coming to an end. If it is, perhaps the role could go to the Sevenoaks councillor Roger Gough - well-thought of, intelligent and potentially a good foil to the rather direct style of the current leader.

But I also think he'd make a good education cabinet member. And whenever I make these predictions, they usually turn out to be well wide of the mark so you might be advised to disregard them...

 

 

 

 

Politicians profess to care about many causes - and many are genuine about it - but the causes they espouse most vigourously are often the ones that connect most directly with voters and ones that can yield quick returns.

Which goes some way to explain why successive governments have opted to kick into the long grass the tricky issue of how society will deal with - and pay for - the increasing number of elderly people needing care in the coming years.

There are signs that the head-in-the-sand approach adopted by ministers may very slowly be changing. The issue is getting traction after years in which the Treasury particularly has had its collective head in the sand deeper than most.

The Dilnot Report, which set out reforms that it said would relieve many of the anxieties caused by the uncertainty of knowing how they will pay for care when they need it, has been gathering dust amid warm words from all parties about how they endorse the principles but are still considering how best to set a cap that would limit how much we pay.

Former care minister Paul Burstow stepped into the fray this week with a suggestion to means test winter fuel allowances to release the £1.7bn needed a year to fund a cap of £35,000 on the amount people would have to pay for their care. He was roundly criticised but whatver you think about his case, he has at least outlined one way forward - which is more than anyone else has done.

In Kent, the Conservative leader of Kent County Council Paul Carter has initiated a petition to Downing Street calling on the government to implement the Dilnot reforms by 2015 (before the election), arguing the £1.7bn bill is "a price worth paying" for the horrendous costs many will face when they are older.

 

Opposition parties may quibble about the fact that KCC is pushing this at a time when it is making £18m in savings from its own adult care budget but if the petition helps to generate debate and focus on the ticking time bomb, it deserves to be supported.

Many Conservatives are privately bewildered by the government's unwillingness to tackle the issue at the same time as ring-fencing money for things like International aid and apprehensive about how they will be explain to voters what the policy is when they are out canvassing support for the elections in May.

The issue is particularly pertinent for Kent, which has a higher elderly population than many parts of the country. By 2026, there will be about 658,000 people in the county over 50; compared to about 537,000 now. The demographic trend is only going in one direction.

 

And even politicians get old.

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To say the voters of Kent were underwhelmed by the first election for a police commissioner would be something of an under-statement. A turnout of 16.5% was hardly a sign of voter engagement.

In an effort to get people interested, the Home Office did, during the campaign, produce leaflets for each area detailing candidates' election statements. You had to formally request these in writing as the government dtermined it would be too expensive to allow every candidate a free mail shot.

So, of the 1.2m voters in Kent, how many requested a copy of the one for Kent, which contained 16 glossy pages? In response to a Freedom of Information request, the Home Office has revealed that a grand total of 4,712 leaflets were ordered by residents thirsting for information about who was after the £85k a year job.

Across the country as a whole, 120,361 leaflets were ordered.

And the cost to the taxpayer of printing and distributing these broachures? A total of £191,862.96

 

 

 

"I want to stop the police being run by politicians” –  Ann Barnes, declaring her plan to stand in the election to be Kent’s first crime commissioner

 

“A wilful waste of money” – Ann Barnes, as chairman of Kent Police Authority on the plans for elected police commissioners, before declaring her candidacy

 

 

"It's my view that the idiot entering the roundabout at speed with one
hand on the steering wheel and the other holding his mobile phone poses
an infinitely greater threat to the public wellbeing than a couple of teenagers sharing a cannabis spliff." 

 

Would-be independent police commissioner candidate Ian Driver.

 

 

 

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“Unacceptable and disturbing” – minister Grant Shapps on the £420,000 pay-out to former Kent county council MD Katherine Kerswell

 

“It will save a fortune in the long run” – KCC leader Cllr Paul Carter on scrapping Katherine Kerswell’s role

 

“I am thrilled to join the civil service” Katherine Kerswell on her new six-figure salaried job in the civil service. A few months after leaving her job at KCC

 

“You have to question the training and development within KCC. It does not produce a good working environment when you see people coming in on a six-month contract and apparently sort things out” – Conservative county councillor Mike Jarvis

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“Why don’t they live within their means, or move down here and see what it’s like to be taxed until they weep? Frankly, we can no longer keep subsiding other people’s spending habits.” Former Sun editor Kelvin Mackenzie makes friends in the North by advocating a new “Southern” party for the region

 

“I did receive an invitation but told him I wasn’t going to go.” Rochester and Strood MP Mark Reckless on reports that he was courted by UKIP funder Stuart Wheeler to switch sides

 

“Helen’s exceptionally demanding job requires her to be in London for most of the week, which is where she lives during that time. Her decision to use her rental allowance in London is therefore understandable and acceptable given her circumstances.” A declaration of loyalty for under-fire Maidstone MP Helen Grant from her party chairman James Peace

 

“She is treating the voters of Maidstone with utter contempt. She is exploiting the system to the maximum and she seems to consider her constituency a complete irrelevance. She should do the right thing and resign” – Becky Matthews, a constituent of Mrs Grant’s

 

 

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“Everybody is gobsmacked that they got themselves into a financial mess and did not realise what the situation was. It is staggering.” Dover and Deal MP Charlie Elphicke on the financially-stricken K College

 

“You cannot just click your fingers and fix it. We need to think big and hold our nerve over the decades.” Transport minister Patrick McCloughlin on criticism of the government’s review of aviation strategy. It won’t report until after the election.

 

 

 

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“Following a cabinet decision, it has been decided not to proceed with the trade mission to the USA as it was not considered the best use of public funds at this time.” – Kent County Council scraps a planned trade mission across the pond

 

“It is a small investment and a real opportunity” – Kent County Council defends the same trade mission to the USA a few weeks earlier.

 

“The structure of Kent commercial services is unnecessarily complex and not fit for purpose, it lacks the appropriate direction and has become untethered from the council.” A leaked confidential report on KCC’s commercial services

 

“Utter madness, irresponsible and ridiculous”. The leader of Kent County Council Cllr Paul Carter on Shepway Council’s plan for a nuclear waste site

 

“Let’s not over-dramatise this.” Paul Carter on the same subject.

 

“Many are in dire need of some TLC”  - Backbench county councillor Mike Harrison raises an important matter of state at a full council meeting. Yes, the apparently poor  condition of the chairs councillors sit on.

 

“It makes us look like the landed gentry” – county councillor Bryan Sweetland (Con) berates the media over its coverage of the expenses of the county council’s chauffeur-driven cars.

 

“Chauffeur-driven” – how KCC’s policy document refers to the authority’s fleet of cars. Five times.

 

“Concurrent strategies and tactics that will facilitate this requirement must be integrated into the broader approach.” A gold-medal winning piece of jargon from Kent County Council’s emergency Olympic plan.

 

  

 

"A momentous moment in the county's history" - KCC education cabinet member Cllr Mike Whiting on the proposals for a new grammar school.

 

  

 

“A number of people have said the Kent test is not fit for purpose and could be improved, specifically because there is a sense you can coach for it and if people are willing to devote money to something, they can get an unfair advantage when it comes to getting a grammar school place." Cllr Mike Whiting announces a review of the 11-plus to make it "tutor proof"

 

 

 

 

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“We cannot go around all the institutions of this country, heralding the virtues of direct elections when at the heart of our constitution 825 members are there as a result of some form of patronage.” Thanet South MP Laura Sandys backs reform of the House of Lords

 

 

"The awarding of this prize to the EU brings it into disrepute." UKIP leader Nigel Farage slams the decision to award the EU the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

 

Meanwhile, bears continue to make mess in woods...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyone who has come across Ann Barnes will know her as someone who isn't afraid to speak her mind and has fairly forthright views.  (A bit like Ann Widdecombe).

Among the subjects that she has not been backward in coming forward on is the government's plans for elected police commissioners. And the policy is not one she has been enthused about - until now.

Long before yesterday's official launch of her campaign to become Kent's first elected police commissioner, plenty of people were speculating that she might put her name in the hat but she steadfastly refused to say she would.

So, what has changed her mind?

According to Ann, there is no inconsistency in her misgivings about the policy and her candidacy - "we are where we are" is how she puts it - but it is the twin fears about the police coming under increasing political control and greater privatisation that convinced her to put her name in the frame.

Interestingly, I'm told she did receive overtures from at least one political party a while ago but is said to have declined.

She is undoubtedly one of the more credible independent candidates on the starting blocks.

It is an astute move to bring in the energetic Peter Carroll to mastermind her campaign - the man who gave Ann Helen Grant a close run at the last general election as a Lib Dem candidate and who can list successes with Gurkhas and the Fair Fuel among notable campaigns.

But like all independent candidates, she will not have the advantage of a party machine behind her and be able to call on members and activists to post letters and knock on doors. In a county as large as Kent, that will prove a challenge although it is one she seems to relish.

Then there is the issue of her profile. She is well known among the political establishment as the long-standing chair of the Kent Police Authority, which is not to be sniffed at. But beyond the corridors of power and Kent Police HQ?

Still, her presence in the contest will make it infinitely more interesting and stands to make it less likely to become a run-off between the two main party candidates - Conservative Craig Mackinlay and Labour's Harriet Yeo.

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It looks like we won't have to wait too long before we find out how KCC's Conservative leadership intends to save £100m out of next year's budget. Unlike previous years, the budget proposals are to be published in September - not December of January. Why?

Well, you could call me an old cynic but getting bad news out of the way early, especially in an election year, is a tried and trusted political ploy.

Mind you, judging by the tit bits from leader Paul Carter at last week's full council meeting, you'd be forgiven for thinking that it will be a vote winner rather than a vote loser.

The spin doctors have been at work too - it seems the theme will be based around four 'Ps' - partnership, productivity, procurement and prevention (that last one is not about preventing votes being lost, by the way.)

And the fifth 'P' will be - roll of drums - the 'people of Kent.' Clever, eh?

So, what shall we call it? With all these 'p's around, I rather like the idea of it being the Birds Eye budget.

 

 

There was, inevitably, a certain amount of spin and bluster as KCC's PR machine sought to put the best possible gloss on the disclosure that KCC's former managing director Katherine Kerswell received a £420,000 payoff after less than two years in post.

It was a pretty thankless task. The efforts to portray it as all part of a well-organised and money-saving restructure will not have persuaded many taxpayers that this was an exercise in well-thought through financial prudency.

Particularly unpersuasive was the assertion that KCC was forced into making the payout because of restrictive employment legislation and because it didn't want to risk a costly employment tribunal. If both sides had mutually agreed that the role of group MD was to be abolished, why would there be a risk of an employment tribunal? If the managing director's post was made redundant, what would have been the statutory entitlement to redundancy pay for her 18 months in post?

A similar argument about restrictive employment law was made when KCC admitted it had paid £365,000 to its former highways director Adam Wilkinson, who left after a year in post. It doesn't appear many lessons were learned.

KCC's problem is that it has form in this area. And it is not a distinguished track record.  Some might consider that it has at times been almost dysfunctional in dealing with executive pay - there is a suspicion that the de fault position for County Hall politicians when they are confronted by a high-profile personnel difficulty is to throw as much money at it as possible to make it go away.

The council employed Katherine Kerswell at a time when it knew full well that financial storm clouds were gathering for local government and central government was rattling a few cages about town hall fat cats.

Indeed, after the departure of Peter Gilroy - who, lest we forget, received a one-off payment of £200,000 on the day he left the job - the Conservatives actually discussed not appointing a successor to save money but eventually decided it was a step too far. (Mr Gilroy's £200k actually cost the taxpayer £408,000).

Her appointment was hailed as a "worthy successor" to Mr Gilroy but back then, even Ms Kerswell would not expecting that in less than two years she would be on her way out.

The public explanation is that her departure was a result of the restructuring operation she had masterminded with KCC leader Paul Carter to slim down the authority in the face of budget cutbacks and in particular to chop away at the top-heavy management tiers. You could say she became a victim of her own operation.

Behind the scenes, however, there was said to be growing disgruntlement (whether legitimate or not, no-one knows) among some in the Conservative group about the former MD and that came to a head during the Conservative leadership contest last October - two months before it was announced she was to leave.

It is worth remembering KCC's lamentable attempt to deny that its MD was to leave - issuing a statement flatly contradicting the reports - last November, then just a week or two later confirming that she was - events that hardly gave the impression that KCC had been engaged in a properly and carefully considered exercise.

Whatever contract KCC signed with Katherine Kerswell, it was clearly one that failed the taxpayer. So, who approved it and who signed it? When the council complains that it doesn't have the resources for some services, taxpayers should perhaps remind it of one of the reasons it may be a little short of money.

Looking ahead, Conservatives at County Hall may well find that when they come to next year's local election and - as they surely will - tell us that Conservative-run councils cost you less, voters on the doorstep may be just a tad cynical.

Relations between politicians and journalists can often be uneasy ones, characterised by mutual suspicion, a lack of trust and, just occasionally, a touch of paranoia.

Politicians often think we are out to get them and are working to some kind of hidden agenda. And the word that sometimes gets bandied about is that we are 'biased'.

It is a word that KCC leader Paul Carter used when he fired off a New Year salvo at the local media in general just before departing for a month long break to participate in a vintage car rally to South Africa.

Paul Carter's New Year article>>>

In a piece, which for the most part was a look back over the year, he ended with a short section 'looking forward'. It began with a pledge that he wished to "improve our relationship with the local press."

This laudable aim was then rather undermined by a series of comments that together amounted to an attack on those that he wished to foster improved relationships with.

The article claimed that 'some stories have been particularly biased against KCC' and although he stopped short of specifying which ones, it is pretty clear that he was referring to the controversy surrounding the departure of managing director Katherine Kerswell.

Acknowledging that there had been 'several high profile issues' in the last few weeks, he claimed that the media's 'constant sniping at KCC 'impacts on morale for our hard-working staff' and 'the consequence will inevitably be a knock-on effect to frontline service delivery.'

If this was intended to be the start of his desire to improve relationships with the media, it was not only misjudged but perverse.

Perhaps the most risible comment was his appeal to the media to play stories with a 'straight bat' and give 'credit where credit's due' - and to let the public 'actually decide for themselves'.

This from an organisation that has over the years accrued a reputation for evasiveness and PR spin that might make even Peter Mandleson blush.

Unfortunately for KCC, its own unwillingness to play with a straight bat has contributed to a sense of distrust - which was only made worse by the debacle over departure of managing director Katherine Kerswell. 

KCC moved heaven and earth to persuade everyone, including its own staff, that nothing was going on when it was common knowledge that discussions were already underway about scrapping her £197,000 post.

Its initial statement responding to media queries was a classic piece of Orwellian double-speak, a contrivance of misinformation that - while strictly accurate -  was as far removed from 'playing with a straight bat' as could be imagined.

Equally ludicrous was the claim that our 'constant sniping' was threatening front line services by damaging morale among staff.

Does KCC, which never lets us forget that it is one of the biggest authorities in the country and the county's largest employer, expect us not to report job losses and the potential consequences for residents because of the squeeze on public spending - not to mention huge pay-offs for directors on six-figure salaries?   

Nothing has damaged morale at County Hall more than the lamentable way it dealt with events leading up to the decision to scrap Katherine Kerswell's role. The evidence came in some of the scathing comments posted by staff on its own Intranet site about her departure and reported pay-off, showing that many felt duped by KCC, their own employer.

Uncomfortable though it can be for politicians, our job is to hold them to account for their actions and decisions and ask the questions that the public - as taxpayers - would want answered.

It is not to suppress information although you get the sense that KCC sometimes thinks it should be.

It is true we are often sceptical - not biased - and if KCC wonders why we are, it really does have its head in the sand far deeper than even we imagine.

 

 

 

IT's not exactly been the most scintillating leadership contest but the battle to become the next Conservative leader of Kent County Council - which will be determined this Friday - has almost sprung to life with the leaking of one of the candidate's manifesto statements.

Cllr Keith Ferrin, who along with former cabinet member Nick Chard, is bidding to oust the incumbent Paul Carter, has told his colleagues the Conservatives are facing a ‘Gordon Brown’ moment - implying that if they don't switch horses now, the Kent Conservatives will face the kind of meltdown Labour endured at the last general election.

In a seven-page manifesto letter leaked to the KM Group and headed ‘This is our Gordon Brown moment’ he writes:

"In my view, like it or not, we need change. If we don’t get it, just where do you think we will all be in 12 or 18 months time?"

Conservatives face a Gordon Brown moment: read Cllr Ferrin's letter here>>>

Ferrin Manifesto.pdf (1.16 mb)

Cllr Ferrin also takes aim at what he describes as KCC’s "insistent public attacks on Conservative ministers" suggesting many feel aggrieved at the way they have been criticised.

He says the council has been approaching its budget cuts in the wrong way and fewer redundancies would be needed if staff were asked to take pay cuts, unpaid leave and shorter working weeks.

"If we were able to get our staff to agree to such an approach, we may well be able to save much of the £14m we expect to spend on redundancy payments."

And In something of a sideswipe at the recent re-organisation at County Hall, he claims the authority will be left with "an ever more complex and therefore expensive bureaucracy than we had before".

"It is a matter of fact that once the re-organisation is complete we will have more people being paid more than the Prime Minister than we have ever had before.Why?"

It's an intriguing manifesto statement and more than one insider I have spoken to says that it has given some Conservatives within the 73-strong group pause for thought. Despite this, the betting seems to be that Mr Carter remains favourite to retain the leadership although the consensus seems to be that he has to do so in the first round.

If he fails to secure more than 50% of the votes he needs at that stage, the contest may take an interesting twist.

(Cllr Ferrin said he did not wish to comment further, telling me the letter was "clear enough" over his views).

 

A couple of months ago, former Labour minister John Denham told party activists in Kent: "Labour’s values and traditions put us in the best position to respond to southern voters’ fears and aspirations."

The conundrum of how to restore the party's fortunes in a county where the Conservatives took every single seat in 2010 and wiped out seven Labour MPs in the process has been testing party minds ever since that catastrophic night.

Ed Miliband knows as well as anyone that if he is to become the next PM, he has to win seats in Kent. His speech - as most leaders' speeches are - was more about striking the right mood and pushing the right buttons not just for activists but for those in key 'middle England' seats.

Acknowledging that the party lost trust on the economy and saying a future Labour government would only spend what it could afford were important, although it's worth pointing out that it was under Blair, the ultimate middle England seducer, that the government responded to the apparent desire among voters for more investment in public services by ploughing more money into the public sector at a time when - with hindsight - we ought not to have been.

An interesting poll of Conservative marginal seats by Lord Ashcroft this week indicated that voters'  top concerns are the economy and jobs; the NHS and immigration - the latter being a real touchstone issue in Kent and the south east but a subject Miliband ignored altogether.

On the economy and jobs, the Conservatives are 7 points behind Labour in those seats where Labour is the main challenger; tackling the deficit and debt are not seen as important.

So Miliband is right to focus on that but the concept of a new 'bargain' for the country struck me as odd. I didn't really know what he meant and I'm not sure voters will either. Some of the rhetoric was actually resonant of Cameron but his refrain that the wrong people with the wrong values were being rewarded above those with the right values was strong and likely to strike a chord with families losing tax credits, facing uncertainty about their jobs and struggling to pay rising fuel, food and transport bills.

Perhaps Labour's biggest hope come the next election is that they will be going to the polls against a likely backdrop of four years of fairly relentless cutbacks in all public services and an economy still in the doldrums.  Whether that is enough to recover any of the ground lost in 2010 is another matter altogether.

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It depends on who you talk to but the whispers at County Hall are that the current leader Paul Carter will not be sorely tested by the threat of a leadership challenge in mid October.

His rival candidates - who appear to have taken a Trappist vow of silence (at least in so far as public pronouncements are concerned) - are said to be struggling to get any momentum. An insider suggested that one was actually yet to find either a proposer or a seconder although both have another week to go before nominations have to be in.

There is universal support for Cllr Carter among his cabinet colleagues and none are said to be contemplating entering the contest. All this has left some gloomy backbenchers rather restless but resigned to the outcome. But as one said: "At least there will have to be change of emphasis because he will have to take account of the fact that he was not elected unopposed for the first time."

 

 

COUNTY Hall has been awash with speculation about a possible leadership contest for some time, with insiders predicting there could be blood on the Conservative carpet come October.

'We want your job' - top Tories vie for Carter's leadership at County Hall>>>

Now the rumour mill that has been in overdrive has spilled into the open and two challengers to Paul Carter have declared their hand.

The question is whether either can gather enough support to topple the incumbent between now and next month.

Any politician in such a job for so long cannot help but make a few enemies along the way and Cllr Carter is no exception. In recent weeks and months, the disquiet among some backbenchers has become increasingly shrill. The planned closure of libraries, hastily abandoned, cuts to the youth service and more recently a stormy meeting over plans to cut the number of community liaison managers from 12 to 7 - leading to a late U-turn - have all been generating angst within the group.

But that is pretty much to be expected. Like other political leaders, Cllr Carter may be paying the price for having too large a majority. His uncompromising and forthright style can on occasion rub people up the wrong way.

Having so many backbenchers with little direct involvement in the decision-making process is a well known recipe for breeding frustration and discontent.

His rivals will undoubtedly seek to exploit this and hope that the mantra that it is 'time for a change’ will be compelling enough.

But Nick Chard and Keith Ferrin run the risk of looking like they are in a grudge match - both have been fired from the cabinet by the man they want to replace.

Either way, it looks like becoming an acrimonious and potentially divisive contest. In an email, Keith Ferrin writes that he hopes “we can all now calm down and conduct a low key civilized contest in which we all remember that much more unites us than divides us.” (At the same time, he suggests that his rival for the role as reneged on an earlier commitment to support his bid.)

That may be a rather forlorn hope as political leadership battles are rarely civilised affairs regardless of how they appear on the surface. Ask Margaret Thatcher.

As to the outcome, I’m told that Mr Carter is bullish about his prospects. On the other hand, neither Mr Chard or Mr Ferrin would have declared their intentions without taking soundings beforehand – but pledges of support in such contests should always be treated with caution. I expect all three candidates to be getting multiple pledges, as Conservatives eye up their prospects of preferment under each.

 

At this stage, it seems Cllr Carter remains favourite to hang on but a lot can happen in a few weeks. There may be others to enter the fray although one whose name has been mentioned - Dartford council leader Jeremy Kite - has ruled himself out.

But with the council in the grip of drastic budget cuts and a controversial re-organisation, Conservatives may just feel that now is not exactly the best time to give somebody else the captain’s armband.