All posts tagged 'conservatives'

Why the election battle getting all tactical in Kent

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Monday, April 20 2015

If you are looking for a measure of how tight the election battle is in Kent, then you don't need to look much further than the attempts being made by all parties to woo supporters of their rivals.

The trouble is that there are some different lines coming out which is serving to make an aready complicated election even more confusing for voters.

In Maidstone, Nick Clegg delivered an appeal to Labour supporters to back the candidate Jasper Gerard - saying that represented the best way to oust the the Conservative incumbent Helen Grant. Party strategists even disclosed their private polling data to show that so far one in five Labour voters had indicated their willingness to switch.

But the message from South Thanet is rather different. There, Labour is calling on both Liberal Democrat supporters and soft Conservative voters to back its man Will Scobie. And that appeal was endorsed by a former Liberal Democrat peer Lord Oakshott last week, who said the only way to stop Ukip was to have a "progessive voters" forge an alliance to thwart his Parliamentary ambitions.

As to Ukip, party leader Nigel Farage has encouraged "old" Labour voters as well as Conservatives, to support him, saying the party is the only one who can control immigration.

David Cameron, who tried to push tactical voting at the Rochester by-election, has encouraged Lib Dems and Ukip supporters to vote Conservative to block a Labour government propped up by the SNP.

There is nothing new about tactical voting but the various entreaties being made by all parties do indicate that this will be what everyone knows is an unpredictable outcome.

And it is worth remembering that tactical voting is as much to do with politicians enhancing their prospects of getting the job as it is to do with some higher moral purpose - the "vote for me because you might think I am no good but wait til you see what the other guy is like" argument.

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EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT KENT AND THE GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN - all in one place #kentecides

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The election campaign has been a pretty timid and lifeless one so far, with no real flashpoints or defining moments. It seems as though the parties are campaigning in monotone.

This is because they are all totally terrified of making a gaffe that will come to haunt them come May 7 and are, so far as possible, micro-managing events in a way that ensures that contact with unpredictable voters  is kept to a minimum and if at all possible avoided altogether.

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, visiting Maidstone, did at leat meet some students and happily gave countless media interviews.

But there have been visits where the public will have been totally oblivious to them happening. Conservative Home Secretary Theresa May came down to Ramsgate last week but I am not sure she had any interaction with voters. (I should, to be fair, stress that she was quite happy to be interviewed by us).

At least Labour can be spared the charge that it is trying to evade encounters with the public - only because to date, there have been no VIP visits at all which seems strange given there are two official target seats and South Thanet in its sights.

As to Ukip, it is at least opening up the endless "meet Nigel" events to both the Press and public - although at recent ones, he has declined to ask the audience how many are party members or activists, suggesting that many of those attending are probably already backing the party.

John Major was widely ridiculed for his election "soap box" stunt back in 1992 but 23 years on it is interesting to see that the Conservatives are considering bringing it back to reinvigorate what has, so far, been a curiously lifeless affair given what is at stake.

 

 

 

 

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No clear winner but a TV debate that confounded expectations

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Friday, April 3 2015

It was inevitable that the party spin doctors all declared that their candidate won but the truth is that the seven-way election debate was a score draw - and a highly entertaining one at that. The fact that the snap polls had differing results served to underline that this is a highly unpredictable election where any number of outcomes remain possible.

Here's my verdict:

DAVID CAMERON: A composed but slightly safe performance, lacking a little passion perhaps as he strived to present himself as the safe pair of hands and appealed to voters to let him finish the job. It was never likely that he as going to make any gaffes. But stuck out at the end of the podiums did rather make him appear a little aloof. Safe rather than inspring but his aides won't be unhappy about that.

ED MILIBAND: Another solid performance but I did find his one-armed  fist clenching podium punching a little distracting. Kept to the script well, had a good line attacking the Conservatives for being unwilling to tallk about the future. His obvious attempts to address the audience beyond those in the studio were a little bit clunky.No "hell yeah" moments.

NICK CLEGG: The clear winner in the 2010 debates, this was another smooth performance, and his attacks on Cameron had you wondering how on earth the pair had managed a coalition for five years. However, while his willingness to acknowledge mistakes - including the U-turn on tuition fees - had the virtue of candour it did also remind voters of a politician who said one thing and did another

NIGEL FARAGE: Began a little woodenly but got into his stride as the debate went on and pushed all the usual Ukip buttons - effectively depicting his rivals as "all the same" and how he represents those who feel disconnected from mainstream parties. There is always scope for something left field when he is interviewed and his comments on people from abroad being treated for HIV came close to that. While he mentioned his party's support for grammar schools he could have put Cameron on the spot over his failure to back a plan for a new one in Kent.

NICOLA STURGEON: By common consent was one of the best performers on the night. Assertive and confident, it could have been tricky for her to make a wider appeal to voters beyond Scotland but did the job well. Effectively criticised the main party leaders as the old boys club. But her strong showing may have served to remind voters that the SNP may have a pivotal role in determining who may run the country after May 7 - allowing Cameron to claim that the SNP might let Miliband through the back door.

NATALIE BENNETT: The most nervous of the seven and appeared to be referring to cue cards on the podium. No major mishaps but I think that she did not come across as well as her rivals. Still, she staked out the Green party claim that it is the most progressive of the parties, arguing that we should "celebrate free movement in the EU". Didn't really cut through as strongly as she may have done.

LEANNE WOODS: Had an even trickier proposition than Nicola Sturgeon but did with some success. Her scolding of Nigel Farage over HIV patients and anti-immigration rhetoric was particularly effective and she had a great line about ordinary people needing a bale out - not just the bankers.


 

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The starting gun has been fired - so who has reasons to be cheerful?

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Monday, March 30 2015

It's official: the starting gun has been fired and the formal general election campaign is underway, even if it might feel like campaigning has been going on for weeks. So, with just weeks to go, how are the parties faring in Kent and Medway?

Who has reasons to be cheerful and who may be feeling apprehensive?

The Conservatives:

Reasons to be cheerful:

  • The party has the benefit of incumbent MPs in most Kent constituencies, who will to a lesser or greater extent carry some personal vote
  • David Cameron consistently out polls Ed 'Hell Yeah' Miliband as the person most trusted by voters to be PM
  • The economy appears to have turned a corner and the party's appeal to voters not to risk damaging the recovery could be central to undecided voters 

Reasons to be worried:

  • The insurgent Ukip party is nipping at its heels in many parts of the county. The shadow of Nigel Farage, standing in South Thanet, looms large and there are fears Ukip could split the vote and let Labour in
  • Despite the up-turn in the economy, many people still say they are not benefitting
  • Immigration is still a touchstone issue in Kent and the Conservative failure to curb numbers remains a faultline
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Labour

Reasons to be cheerful:
  • Ukip is, on balance, more likely to win over disaffected Conservatives which could, in sufficient numbers, allow it to come through the middle and win seats
  • Polls point to the NHS as being a key concern and with several Kent hospitals under-performing, it is an issue Labour is strong on
  • Ed Miliband may lag behind David Cameron but if he performs well in the remaining TV debates, that gap may narrow
Reasons to be worried:
  • Ed Miliband consistently loses out to David Cameron when voters are asked who they most trust to be Prime Minister
  • The party's failure to tackle immigration cost them seats in 2010 and the issue is still seen as an Achiles' heel in Kent
  • There are signs that it is leaking voters to Ukip at one end of the political specturm - and to the Green party at the other - meaning it could be squeezed in its target seats of Chatham and Aylesford and Dover and Deal
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The Liberal Democrats

Reasons to be cheerful:

  • Things are about as bad as they could be for the  party's poll rating - surely they can't get much worse?
  • The party is heavily targetting the Conservative-held seat of Maidstone and The Weald and has an outside chance of success
  • Unlike Labour and the Conservatives, Ukip is not siphoning away supporters on the same scale
Reasons to be gloomy
  • The party has no solid county-wide base of supporters to act as foot soldiers and has struggled to find candidates 
  • It won't have much by way of campaign resources to throw at Kent as it is fighting to hang on to its existing MPs elsewhere
  • The broken promise on tuition fees continues to cost it support in university towns and cities
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UKIP

Reasons to be cheerful:
  • Kent has become an established power base for the party, meaning it has plenty of willing volunteers to canvas support
  • Nigel Farage may not be everyone's cup of tea but his presence as South Thanet candidate means the party is getting a far high-profile in the county
  • Immigration remains a key concern for voters and Ukip is seen as particularly strong on this issue

Reasons to be gloomy
  • It has had to deal with rather too many embarrassing episodes involving candidates close to home, the latest being the expulsion of Janice Atkinson as ppc for Folkestone and Hythe over an expenses claim
  • There is some evidence of informal anti-Ukip coalitions emerging in key seats which could squeeze its vote
  • Its policies on the EU and immigration are clear but less so on other subjects
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The Green Party

Reasons to be cheerful:

It won't win any parliamentary seats but there are signs it is picking up support from disaffected Labour supporters and Liberal Democrat voters
It has a record number of candidates in Kent council elections and is likely to win in some of those

Reasons to be gloomy:

Some of its policies have been derided as unrealistic and impossible to implement
After a car crash TV interview with  leader Natalie Bennett, its poll ratings took a slide

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The starting gun has been fired - so who has reasons to be cheerful?

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Monday, March 30 2015

It's official: the starting gun has been fired and the formal general election campaign is underway, even if it might feel like campaigning has been going on for weeks. So, with just weeks to go, how are the parties faring in Kent and Medway?

Who has reasons to be cheerful and who may be feeling apprehensive?

The Conservatives:

Reasons to be cheerful:

  • The party has the benefit of incumbent MPs in most Kent constituencies, who will to a lesser or greater extent carry some personal vote
  • David Cameron consistently out polls Ed 'Hell Yeah' Miliband as the person most trusted by voters to be PM
  • The economy appears to have turned a corner and the party's appeal to voters not to risk damaging the recovery could be central to undecided voters 

Reasons to be worried:

  • The insurgent Ukip party is nipping at its heels in many parts of the county. The shadow of Nigel Farage, standing in South Thanet, looms large and there are fears Ukip could split the vote and let Labour in
  • Despite the up-turn in the economy, many people still say they are not benefitting
  • Immigration is still a touchstone issue in Kent and the Conservative failure to curb numbers remains a faultline
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Labour

Reasons to be cheerful:
  • Ukip is, on balance, more likely to win over disaffected Conservatives which could, in sufficient numbers, allow it to come through the middle and win seats
  • Polls point to the NHS as being a key concern and with several Kent hospitals under-performing, it is an issue Labour is strong on
  • Ed Miliband may lag behind David Cameron but if he performs well in the remaining TV debates, that gap may narrow
Reasons to be worried:
  • Ed Miliband consistently loses out to David Cameron when voters are asked who they most trust to be Prime Minister
  • The party's failure to tackle immigration cost them seats in 2010 and the issue is still seen as an Achiles' heel in Kent
  • There are signs that it is leaking voters to Ukip at one end of the political specturm - and to the Green party at the other - meaning it could be squeezed in its target seats of Chatham and Aylesford and Dover and Deal
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The Liberal Democrats

Reasons to be cheerful:

  • Things are about as bad as they could be for the  party's poll rating - surely they can't get much worse?
  • The party is heavily targetting the Conservative-held seat of Maidstone and The Weald and has an outside chance of success
  • Unlike Labour and the Conservatives, Ukip is not siphoning away supporters on the same scale
Reasons to be gloomy
  • The party has no solid county-wide base of supporters to act as foot soldiers and has struggled to find candidates 
  • It won't have much by way of campaign resources to throw at Kent as it is fighting to hang on to its existing MPs elsewhere
  • The broken promise on tuition fees continues to cost it support in university towns and cities
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UKIP

Reasons to be cheerful:
  • Kent has become an established power base for the party, meaning it has plenty of willing volunteers to canvas support
  • Nigel Farage may not be everyone's cup of tea but his presence as South Thanet candidate means the party is getting a far high-profile in the county
  • Immigration remains a key concern for voters and Ukip is seen as particularly strong on this issue

Reasons to be gloomy
  • It has had to deal with rather too many embarrassing episodes involving candidates close to home, the latest being the expulsion of Janice Atkinson as ppc for Folkestone and Hythe over an expenses claim
  • There is some evidence of informal anti-Ukip coalitions emerging in key seats which could squeeze its vote
  • Its policies on the EU and immigration are clear but less so on other subjects
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The Green Party

Reasons to be cheerful:

  • It won't win any parliamentary seats but there are signs it is picking up support from disaffected Labour supporters and Liberal Democrat voters
  • It has a record number of candidates in Kent council elections and is likely to win in some of those

Reasons to be gloomy:

  • Some of its policies have been derided as unrealistic and impossible to implement
  • After a car crash TV interview with  leader Natalie Bennett, its poll ratings took a slide

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Manston, Murray + the lights go out at County Hall

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Friday, February 6 2015

The fate of Manston Airport is still - excuse the pun - up in the air.

But the MPs on the transport select committee lifted one or two interesting stones on what seems a very complex issue of who owns the airport site when they quizzed a variety of witnesses at a hearing this week.

The hearing made for an uncomfortable experience for Pauline Bradley, the director of Manston Skyport Ltd and the two interim directors of Kent Airport Ltd who were repeatedly pressed on the issue of the extent to which the former owner Ann Gloag was involved and how she potentially stood to benefit on the back of the business park scheme envisaged by the new owners.

MP Tom Harris articulated what many people think about the sale when he asked Ms Bradley if she could understand "why people might look at this and think it looks slightly fishy" given that "a lot of people are about to get very wealthy on the back of a £1 purchase?"

In a reply that lacked a great deal of conviction, she said that there had never been any attempt to disguise Ms Gloag's financial stake and there was no question that she would exercise any financial control. Which is of course an important distinction but it took a while to prise out the fact that Mrs Gloag has a 20% stake.

In one of the more dramatic moments, Sir Roger Gale read from a report which he said revealed that Mrs Gloag had no intention of running the airport for two years. While it was unclear who wrote it, the MP quoted a section which stated that "in the process of creating the JV [Joint Venture] steps should be taken to restructure the HGT  shareholding such that it cannot be easily identified" and that "the perception that the site is under the conrol of a non-controversial JV partner would be commercially advantageous from a planning perspective."

I got the distinct impression that the committee members were not awfully impressed or totally convinced by the evidence put forward by the owners but we will have to wait and see. And it is likely that we may have to wait until after the election to find out what the select committee recommends.

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If you can hear the sound of car gears crashing around County Hall, it is probably connected to the latest policy U-turn.

After a reversal on plans to axe the number of communty wardens comes the news that the great streetlight switch-off is to be effectively scrapped.

We were told when it was first introduced that a pilot scheme would run for a year and then be reviewed. But the Conservative administration has clearly got the jitters and are to phase it out. There will still be a review which as I understand it will focus on issues.such as whether the switch-off has led to more crime and if so, where.

 

The new policy is to invest £40m in replacing every single streetlight with new LED bulbs, which have the advantage of being more energy efficient and can de dimmed and are cheaper to run - once you have made the initial outlay.

KCC invested an awful lot in its pilot swith-off scheme and there will be some questions about why it went to such great lengths to do so.

The odd thing is that when KCC first announced about deciding to replace the bulbs in its 120,00 streetlights in October, there was no mention of the possibility that it could be an alternative to the night-time switch off.

But the switch-off has gone down badly in many communities and there have been claims it has led to increased crime rates.  When opposition parties at KCC  called for an end to the scheme last September, they were told by the Conservative Mr Brazier that "most rational people know there is nothing to fear."

The fear that seems to matter among Conservatives is the fear that it will cost them votes at the forthcoming election.

 

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Al Murray hit the campaign trail in Thanet South this week and rival candidates were probably gritting their teeth as he effortlessly  secured a huge amount of media coverage.

 

 

There were plenty of jokes, repartee with reporters and mugging for the cameras. It is all slightly surreal and you have to wonder whether, by May 7, the joke may have worn a bit thin.

 

But he is doing a good job of pricking the pomposity of politicians who,  during interviews, like to preface their answers to questions with the refrain "I am glad you have asked me that" - normally followed by an answer that has absolutely nothing to do wth the question.

 

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Mine's a pint: Can comic Al Murray upset the election odds in Thanet South?

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Thursday, January 15 2015

If the election battle for the key Kent constituency of Thanet South was not already interesting, the news that comedian Al Murray - or his alter ego the pub landlord - is throwing his hat in the ring has made it even more so.

Announcing his intention to stand via a video address in which, among other commitments, he pledged to make beer a penny a pint came out of left field. Interestingly, an interview he gave to The Independent in 2013 criticised comedians who embraced politics, saying their role was to lampoon them.

 

It appears his main target is Ukip - his party's logo is an inverted pound symbol in gold - and his opening salvo in the video was to declare that the time was right for a tilt at Westminster.

"It seems to me UK is ready for a bloke waving a pint around offering commonsense solutions," he declared, leaving no ambiguity as to who is in his sights.

His confused rivals reacted in the only way they could - by adopting a jocular tone saying it would liven up the campaign and desperately trying to avoid looking either panicked or po-faced.

Ukip to its credit came up with the best one liner, saying it welcomed the news of "a serious rival at last" while its leader Nigel Farage saying "the more the merrier." Laura Sandys, the out-going Conservative MP, said there were already enough comedians standing - note the plural.

How will all this go down with the voters in Thanet South is anyone's guess. His parody of a hyper-nationalistic landlord is sometimes affectionate, sometimes cutting. 

Is he serious about winning? Or simply standing to poke fun at politics and politicians? If it is the latter, there is a good case for arguing that his candidacy is unnecessary.

Many voters already look on politicians as a joke and don't need a comedian to remind them of that or deflate the egos of those standing for office.

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There was an interesting debate about fracking at County Hall this week. Or rather, there should have been but in the grand tradition of council meetings, our elected-representatives decided that it was more important to debate whether there should be a debate.

This stemmed from a petition submitted by the Faversham and Mid Kent Green Party candidate Tim Valentine and signed by nearly 3,000 people. Under KCC rules, this automatically triggered a debate at the meeting of the authority's environment scrutiny committee.

The only problem was that, according to the council's legal eagles, no such debate could be permitted as to do so and to adopt a presumption against any fracking applications, would compromise the council's position because it was the relevant planning authority dealing with them.

So, we were treated to one of those debates about constitutional procedures which councillors seem to relish. A clearly exasperated Cllr David Brazier, cabinet member for the environment, said he could not understand why "intelligent people" had signed the petition"  when a cursory glance at KCC's website would have indicated why such a call was not likely to succeed.

I am not sure how that would have gone down that well with the public but that's County Hall politics for you.

As it was, after some ill-tempered exchanges, the Conservative majority on the committee voted to close down the debate much to the irritation of the opposition representatives.






 




 

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Nigel vs Russell: Who won the Question Time face off?

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Friday, December 12 2014

It being the pantomime season, it was a smart move by the makers of BBC's Question Time to rope in Russell Brand and UKIP leader Nigel Farage for its final programme of the series.

I am not sure whether it left the audience desperate for a re-run and neither was it clear who was the villain and who was the hero.

It began with a question that seemed to offer Brand an open goal - was the adverserial nature of politics leading to its decline  - but he appeared unusually nervous and fluffed it, which must have taken David Dimbelby by surprise.

Still, at least the audience was in a rather frisky mood and a few more than heated exchanges from the audience seats only served to remind those watching how tame the panel seemed.

At some points you sensed that Russell Brand and Nigel Farage had more in common than they were prepared to admit and couldn't decide who was the villain  - both characterising themselves as "outsiders" - but Brand stuck the knife in with a good one-liner about Farage being a "Poundland Enoch Powell."

Although I did wonder whether, like Blue Peter, this was something he had prepared earlier. The cameras at one point showed him leafing throuh what could have been cue cards - who would have thought he needed those?

Farage generally kept his cool but was rather less animated than he usually is. He correctly surmised that it would be counter-productive to try to best Brand.

Instead, he chose to focus his attack on Labour's Mary Creagh and the floundering government representative Penny Morduant, who had she been playing in a football match, would have been substituted very early.

Creagh was reasonably good but too often lapsed into a recital of Labour's commitments that has most people tuning out and wondering about other things.

I expected Penny Morduant, who gamely appeared in the ITV programme Splash, to be rather better. After a belly flop like that, she may be inclined to turn down future invitations.

But she was on the defensive from the start after Dimbleby chose to remind the audience and viewers that she had been found out for making a speech in Parliament in which she used some rather fruity words - apparently as a dare from certain Naval friends.

Not a good position to debate a question about how mainstream politics might be in decline.

Dimbleby crowbarred a question about social mobility and whether we ought to have more grammar schools right at the end, which was a mistake as the panel only had a few minutes to debate what could well be an election flashpoint next May.

Brand lamely admitted that he "didn't know much about grammars" and opted for a rambling riff about other issues, leaving Farage with the easiest of tap ins at goal.

It was all entertaining stuff but the audience seemed more up for a fight than the panel.

The curtain dropped after what seemed no time at all but the audience was probably thankful the cast did not come back for an encore.

And if you wanted me to name the person who came across the best, it was the journalist Camilla Cavendish, who was easily the sanest person there.



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It's a two-way fight in the by-election battle - but who will deliver the knockout blow?

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Friday, November 7 2014

We are, as football commentators like to say, at the business end of the by-election battle for Rochester and Strood.

You will be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks it is anything but a two-way fight between Ukip and the Conservatives, with the former still ahead on points as they continue sparring.

Conservatives sources say that although the party is behind, the gap is not as wide as the recent opinion polls have indicated and it could yet be a tight race.

I think that may be an optimistic assessment but the last thing any party is going to do or say is anything that could be construed as running up the white flag.

 

The biggest difficulty facing the Conservatives is persuading undecided or floating voters to opt for them rather than Ukip, along with cajoling their own supporters to get out and vote on polling day rather than sit on their hands in protest.

It does appear the party's strategy is geared towards pushing Ukip as hard as it can on November 20 and closing the gap to a point where it can depict the result as a by-election blip and a good platform to recapture the seat next May.

Unless, of course, it finds a way to deliver a decisive knock-out blow in the next two weeks.

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Meanwhile, Ukip remains bouyant but underlying its outwardly confident mood, there are jangling nerves.

It cannot afford to be seen as complacent and cannot afford to make any high-profile gaffes that could be exploited by its opponents to renew the "fruitcake" charge.

It slipped up this week at its open hustings meeting when Mark Reckless rather clumsily described dictator Colonel Gadaffi as "good for immigration" - trying to make a wider point that in so doing, he had stopped migrants leaving Libya and entering Europe through Italy.

And there continues to be plenty of mud being thrown in Ukip's direction about Lodge Hill, with the Conservatives in particular ensuring that the apparently contradictory positions held by Mark Reckless remains in the public domain.

It has just released an American-style attack ad video outlining what it believes to be his flip-flopping on the issue - an interesting development in its strategy.

This is undoubtedly a faultline for Ukip and while it has tried to counter by suggesting that the position of the Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst is ambiguous, it has looked defensive on the issue.

Still, Nigel Farage - who we haven't seen as much of in recent weeks - gave a turbo charge to its hustings meeting in Hoo this week and is said to be returning for a rally to ramp up the Ukip campaign next week.

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The last thing Labour wants in the run-up to polling day is for questions to be asked about its leader Ed Miliband.

But that is what it has got and the danger now is that its prospects in a seat it held for 13 years until 2010 are even worse. Bookmakers are now offering odds of 80-1 against it wininng the seat.

If there is a plan for Ed Miliband to make a return visit, I would expect it is being reconsidered rather urgently.

The party is working on a result which would give it a creditable third place but even that is at risk.

And although it is a long shot, might the Green party pull off a shock and squeeze it into fourth place?

A crushing defeat like that would have huge repercussions for the party - and take some of the heat off David Cameron.








 



 

 

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Is the Rochester and Strood by-election pendulum swinging away from the Conservatives?

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Friday, October 31 2014

It is almost impossible to discern which way the political wind is blowing in the Rochester and Strood by-election but if you are to believe what some commentators are saying, the Conservatives are bracing themselves for a loss.

I don't necessarily subscribe to that view but there is no avoiding that the convergence of various issues is not offering the party a particularly propitious backdrop to its campaign.

The by-election is being dominated by the twin issues of immigration and the UK's membership of EU as much as anything else.

So, to say it was unhelpful to have been ambushed by the EU demanding an extra £1.7bn is something of an under-statement. The fact that the Prime Minister had to truncate a campaign visit to Rochester because he was still in Brussels at a press conference last Friday only served to underline the seriousness of the issue.

Of course, it is possible this could play to the Conservatives if the PM manages to negotiate a reduction but for many, the demand for the money is another illustration of the suspicion  we put in rather more than we get out, which plays to Ukip's appeal.

On immigration, Conservative spirits would not have been helped by the comments made by the Mayor of Calais Natacha Bouchard, who gave evidence to the Home Affairs select committee this week.

In fairly blunt remarks, she told MPs the reason so many migrants were gathered at the French town was because the UK was seen as "El Dorado" and there were jobs to be filled and benefits to be claimed.

This was followed by a set of figures suggesting that there was a growing backlog of asylum seeker claims and 50,000 asylum seekers were "lost" - exactly the kind of thing Ukip laps up to suggest that the governemnt has and is losing control over its borders.

Finally, it seems the government is preparing for a revolt by Conservative backbenchers over the European Arrest Warrant, with MPs believing that it hands other countries too much power to detain UK citizens.

In 2012, the Dover MP Charlie Elphicke organised a letter to the Daily Telegraph signed by more than 100 MPs which outlined their concerns over the EU Commission's ambitions for "a pan-European code of Euro Crimes" - and "deep concerns" over the EAW.

Among the signatories were eight Conservative Kent MPs but I rather suspect they will be brought round to support the government when a vote is held.

With all these issues heaping pressure on the Conservatives, perhaps the question is not so much whether it can win but whether Ukip can lose.

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A chirpy Ed Balls followed his leader down to Rochester to rally support ahead of November 20 but it does seem that their objective is not outright victory but not to lose so badly that it undermines their prospects in Kent at the general election

It is a measure of the changing political landscape that it has almost been forgotten Kent has, over the last four elections, been a battle between Labour and the Conservatives rather than a contest between Ukip and the Conservatives.

But Ukip's growing appeal is drawing support away from Labour as much as it is from the Conservatives. Yet the party knows that to form a government, it will have to win seats in Kent - it is not enough to base your strategy around general national poll ratings which put you marginally ahead of the Conservatives.

It seems the party has one eye on next May but it does seem curious it has allowed the impression to form the contest is a two-way battle between the Conservatives and Ukip while it plays for a decent third place.

Tony Blair recognised the secret to the party's success over his three terms was to ensure it won over "middle England" voters who are now peeling off to Ukip in large numbers.  Ed Miliband seems to be concentrating on shoring up its core supporters, a more defensive strategy.

Perhaps there is some consolation in the fact that a new poll out today puts the NHS as top among voters' concerns in Rochester and Strood - one issue that Labour is strong on.

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If you want an indication of how difficult it is to read this by-election, take a confrontation that William Hague and Kelly Tolhurst had with a disgruntled former Conservative voter in a walkabout in Rochester.

Donna Ripley confronted the pair to demand why a "mega" mosque in Gillingham had been given planning permission and asked whether "this was the way you want England to go?"

She was rather underwhelmed by the reply.

So, would she be voting Ukip? Not at all. "I think they are racist and bigoted."

 


 

 

 

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The bitter by-election battle for Rochester+Strood - why UKIP could win...and lose

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Friday, October 3 2014

It's no surprise the by-election battle looming in Rochester and Strood is shaping up to be one of the most acrimonious and fiercely-contested in British politics for decades.

The vitriol pouring from Conservatives towards Mark Reckless is an indication that they will fight tooth and nail to see him off.

The stakes are high: for UKIP, a win would give their prospects at the general election a huge boost. For the Conservatives, victory would send out a strong message it is capable of resisting UKIP's purple wave.

So, who will get over the finish line first?

 

Why UKIP could win:

  • If UKIP wins the Clacton by-election next week, which the Conservatives seem resigned to, the result could give the party a momentum that could persuade undecided voters in Rochester and Strood that a cross against UKIP is not wasted
  • UKIP continues to trade heavily on its appeal to voters disillusioned with what Nigel Farage dubs the Westminster elite. Disaffection and antipathy to mainstream parties remans high and at a by-election, voters often choose to give the parties in power a bloody nose
  • The perceived failure of the government to tackle immigration has a particular resonance in Kent, the gateway to Europe. The focus on the efforts of migrants at Calais to cross the channel is a vivid reminder that the issue has not gone away and the view that the government has yet to get a grip on it
  • He may not carry a large personal vote but Mark Reckless has been generally supportive over key constituency concerns, such as the Thames Estuary airport. He is regarded as among the most effective members of the Home Affairs select committee
  • If the Conservatives persist with their highly personal attacks on Reckless, there is a risk it could become counter-productive. Voters are already fed up with the playground politics of Westminster and could be turned off if all they hear over the coming weeks of  "he said, she said" verbal jousting

 

Why UKIP could lose:

 

 

 

  • The Achiles’ heel for Mark Reckless is the accusation that he has betrayed voters and his constituency by denying repeatedly that he was to defect. That makes him vulnerable to the damaging charge that he cannot be trusted – a politician who says one thing and does another
  • UKIP has no real organisational base in the Medway Towns in the way that it has in other areas, like Thanet. While the party now has a 17-strong county council group, it has no representation in Medway
  • The Conservatives will bring in the heavy artillery and will be blitzing the constituency with a series of high-profile visits by ministers and MPs. A formidable number of activists are being mobilised to stuff envelopes, deliver leaflets and help out
  • Despite a 10,000 majority, Mark Reckless carries no real personal vote in the way that Douglas Carswell has in Clacton, where UKIP is odds-on to win next week's by-election

The unknown factors:

  • Labour held the seat (then known as Medway) in the Blair years. Although it is not an official target, it could benefit from a split in the right-wing vote. It has an outside chance of causing an upset of its own
  • Perceived wisdom is that by-elections tend to favour minority parties. But this is no ordinary by-election, so it is difficult to gauge what impact a low turn-out may have
  • There is nothing to measure UKIP's standing in the constituency. While it took the largest share of the vote in the European election this year, there has been no local election since 2011 - when it took just under 2% of the vote. UKIP did not contest the seat in the 2010 general election, giving Mark Reckless a free run at the seat.

 

 

 

 

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Categories: Medway | Rochester | Strood

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