All posts tagged 'reckless'

It's a two-way fight in the by-election battle - but who will deliver the knockout blow?

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Friday, November 7 2014

We are, as football commentators like to say, at the business end of the by-election battle for Rochester and Strood.

You will be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks it is anything but a two-way fight between Ukip and the Conservatives, with the former still ahead on points as they continue sparring.

Conservatives sources say that although the party is behind, the gap is not as wide as the recent opinion polls have indicated and it could yet be a tight race.

I think that may be an optimistic assessment but the last thing any party is going to do or say is anything that could be construed as running up the white flag.

 

The biggest difficulty facing the Conservatives is persuading undecided or floating voters to opt for them rather than Ukip, along with cajoling their own supporters to get out and vote on polling day rather than sit on their hands in protest.

It does appear the party's strategy is geared towards pushing Ukip as hard as it can on November 20 and closing the gap to a point where it can depict the result as a by-election blip and a good platform to recapture the seat next May.

Unless, of course, it finds a way to deliver a decisive knock-out blow in the next two weeks.

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Meanwhile, Ukip remains bouyant but underlying its outwardly confident mood, there are jangling nerves.

It cannot afford to be seen as complacent and cannot afford to make any high-profile gaffes that could be exploited by its opponents to renew the "fruitcake" charge.

It slipped up this week at its open hustings meeting when Mark Reckless rather clumsily described dictator Colonel Gadaffi as "good for immigration" - trying to make a wider point that in so doing, he had stopped migrants leaving Libya and entering Europe through Italy.

And there continues to be plenty of mud being thrown in Ukip's direction about Lodge Hill, with the Conservatives in particular ensuring that the apparently contradictory positions held by Mark Reckless remains in the public domain.

It has just released an American-style attack ad video outlining what it believes to be his flip-flopping on the issue - an interesting development in its strategy.

This is undoubtedly a faultline for Ukip and while it has tried to counter by suggesting that the position of the Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst is ambiguous, it has looked defensive on the issue.

Still, Nigel Farage - who we haven't seen as much of in recent weeks - gave a turbo charge to its hustings meeting in Hoo this week and is said to be returning for a rally to ramp up the Ukip campaign next week.

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The last thing Labour wants in the run-up to polling day is for questions to be asked about its leader Ed Miliband.

But that is what it has got and the danger now is that its prospects in a seat it held for 13 years until 2010 are even worse. Bookmakers are now offering odds of 80-1 against it wininng the seat.

If there is a plan for Ed Miliband to make a return visit, I would expect it is being reconsidered rather urgently.

The party is working on a result which would give it a creditable third place but even that is at risk.

And although it is a long shot, might the Green party pull off a shock and squeeze it into fourth place?

A crushing defeat like that would have huge repercussions for the party - and take some of the heat off David Cameron.








 



 

 

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UKIP make an historic beakthrough - can the momentum deliver a victory in Rochester and Strood?

by Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Friday, October 10 2014

If the Conservatives needed any reminding that they are in for a tough fight in Rochester and Strood, UKIP's historic breakthrough in Clacton was a painful reminder that what lies ahead is going to be one their most challenging electoral battles.

It was not so much that UKIP won but that it won so decisively, with a huge landslide for Douglas Carswell. Not only that but it came pretty close to dislodging Labour from what was supposed to be a safe seat - a result likely to induce some panic in the party's ranks.

No wonder that UKIP swiftly announced that its leader and first MP are heading down to Rochester tomorrow to give Mark Reckless a campaign boost and exploit its win for all it is worth.

For the Conservatives and Labour, the challenge is how to arrest the momentum UKIP appears to have and stop Mark Reckless crossing the finishing line first.

Up until now, the Conservatives have been relatively optimistic that while the contest would be close, they would be well-positioned to win and see off UKIP once it had its campaign is up and running. That view is no longer tenable or realistic and the least surprising consequence of last night's result is that bookmakers have now installed UKIP odds on to win Rochester and Strood.

The key problem for the Conservatives - and Labour - is that UKIP continues to attract support from those disillusioned with mainstream parties and politicans and there is arguably no better platform to register this disaffection than at a by-election. Of course, with increasing numbers of local councillors and MEPs and now an MP, this may change but it won't before voters go to the polls next month.

It is debatable whether David Cameron insistence that Rochester and Strood is now a vital battle is helpful. The refrain is clearly designed to encourage Conservative activists and supporters to get on the front foot but it raises the stakes for his own leadership.

The fact that the party has yet to select a candidate has not and is not helping. The plan for a postal primary, in which every constituent (even Mark Reckless) would have a say in who it should be as part of an "inclusve" process was initially attractive.

But the downside is that process is taking time and I just can't see it making much of a difference when voters go to the polls.

It will be another week before the party has someone in place, leaving UKIP to continue to make the running. I wonder now whether the party might regret its strategy but it is too late to do anything abouot it now.

Has the pendulum  swung decisively towards UKIP in Rochester and Strood? The Conservatives will be kickstarting their campaign and are bringing in their heavy artillery to do what it can but will it be enough? As to Labour, the Heywood result suggests that it haemorrhaged support to UKIP and it continues to lack credibility over issues such as immigration, which cost it badly in 2010.

UKIP started from a position of thinking it had an outside chance of winning the by-election; now it believes it really can.





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